Past Tense

Yeah, sure. Tell us all about how the world has changed in 20 years.

Let's see…in 1988 we were talking about Gary Hart's womanizing. Disgraced in '87, he'd quit the presidential race only to re-enter and drop out again.

Ten years later the buzz was about Bill Clinton and his exploits with Monica Lewinsky. And this year we've got John Edwards' adultery and Bristol Palin's pregnancy.

Either human nature doesn't change or there's something weird about the years ending in “8.”

Now let's turn to direct marketing. There was a postal increase in 1988, one planned in 1998 and still another in 2008. There were privacy scandals, bankruptcies, firings and even some successes throughout.

But that doesn't mean things are exactly the same.

Take the postal hikes.

The 1988 increase was one of the worst in history — an average of 25%. Sunset House went under, and mailers like Fingerhut reduced volumes by millions of pieces. The response of incoming Postmaster General Anthony Frank? Basically, “Stop whining.”

The '98 version (actually, it took effect in January 1999) was mild, and this year's even more so.

What happened? These days we're starting to see the early benefits of postal reform, something we didn't dare hope for 20 years ago.

(It may be too late for some catalog mailers. They got slammed the last couple of times.)

Then there's privacy. Direct reported in its first issue in October 1988 that TRW (now part of Experian) planned to “issue a policy statement in an attempt to allay concerns over the use of demographic and credit information, in response to the direct marketing industry's growing concern over privacy.”

That was a hot topic in its time — TRW had introduced a database built largely on credit reports, and there was a predictable outcry in the consumer press. But there wasn't even a hint in 1988 about Can Spam, do-not-mail, phishing, malware or spyware (or Vice President Al Gore's call in 1998 for an “Electronic Bill of Rights.”)

Which brings us to the main shift in direct marketing.

The Internet existed in 1988, but only a few firms dared try it. J.C. Penney had an online shopping service called Telaction. (It bombed). Prodigy and America Online were around…barely.

By '98 we were riding the wave of the dot-com boom. E-mail was taking off. But our understanding of online marketing was different than it is today.

For example, Worldata had a service called WebConnect for placing banner ads on targeted sites. It promoted the sites on pieces resembling list data cards.

But it didn't quite click (pardon the pun). As reported in Direct's July 1998 issue, companies were starting to move beyond banner ads as a way of driving traffic.

“The Web is awash in banners now; they've lost their novelty,” we wrote. “Most importantly, marketers report poor results from them.”

Our advice? “Get indexed with search engines.”

What were some of the marketers around in 1988 and 1998?

One was The Sharper Image. In February 1998, writer Diane Cyr profiled founder Richard Thalheimer, who was taking steps to control manufacturing and distribution. He said: “I think perhaps we're really on to something.”

But consultant Dick Hodgson sounded a cautionary note. “I call it whistling through the graveyard,” he said. And there was evidence to support his view.

“The fact is, The Sharper Image's revenue, at about $220 million for 1997, still aren't much higher than they were back in 1987, when the company had only 27 stores and half as many catalogs,” Diane wrote. “Earnings are still poking along at an expected 10 to 15 cents per share.”

Well, Thalheimer's gone. And this year, the company moved on to the next chapter — Chapter 11.

Then there were some list brands that nobody hears much about these days. Some went out of business, some were swallowed up by other companies.

There was Kleid (it went down hard in one of the big stories of 1998).

There was Listworks (it failed in 2005).

There were P&L Direct Marketing Group, Demographic Systems Inc., Jami, AZ Marketing Services, 21st Century Marketing, BehaviorBank, D-J Associates, Database America, Compilers Plus, Listworld, Woodruff-Stevens…and dozens of lettershops.

Whew. We're out of breath.

But here's one more thing that hasn't changed. It was a great beat for a reporter back then and it's a great beat now.

As we said in 1998, let's talk again in 10 years.