Happy, Happy

We have a pat answer for anyone who wishes us Happy New Year on Dec. 31: “What is happy about it?”

Yes, we're paraphrasing Damon Runyon. But Runyon makes us laugh, and that's just what we'll all need as we fearfully enter 2008.

Face it, 2007 was a rotten year. And direct marketers got the brunt of it — some, anyway.

Figure it out.

Who's the best prospect for almost anything?

Someone moving into a new home. They buy fixtures, furnishings, subscriptions, pet supplies and gardening equipment. But that number is dwindling as banks tighten up on mortgages.

And who's the best prospect for a credit offer?

A person with good credit. But that doesn't include foreclosure victims, or people who haven't held a job in nine months.

Then there's the flat retail sales (which, of course, have also hit people who send catalogs). And the poor winter apparel sales, caused by a warm autumn.

And don't forget that fuel prices have risen, along with transportation costs. We wonder if parcel shippers will use that as an excuse to raise their rates.

This mood is reflected in Direct's annual forecast survey (see Bear Market). Consumer marketers seem less optimistic than their friends in B-to-B.

Won't this be over at some point? Sure. And it doesn't seem as god-awful as the 2001 downturn that was followed by 9/11.

But it's bad enough. And many a white-faced marketing exec now has to tell his CFO that he's way under forecast, and that the six-figure Web site redesign they did last February hasn't paid out yet.

You think that's fun? Try it…especially when you know the next quarter is going to be even worse.

So we're not doing any celebrating on New Year's Eve. Rather, we plan to hole up with the door locked — please don't call. At midnight, we'll listen to Guy Lombardo's old recording of “Auld Lang Syne.” And when we're not sobbing, we'll sit there and brood.